Last updated: Nov. 18, 2020, 11:05 a.m.
Speaker: Prof. John D. Eustaquio
Date: Nov. 26, 2020, 5 p.m.
Venue: Via Zoom
Abstract: The Philippines is highly prone to experiencing typhoon due to its geographical location. Estimating the casualty of every disaster is crucial since this information is needed by the government to decide on what measures to be done. However, these estimates are not readily available since there is a necessity to conduct on-site surveys. For this reason, this study aims to provide a model that will efficiently categorize the magnitude of the damages and loss during typhoons, thereby helping the government appropriate funds to be used in rehabilitations. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to derive an index that would numerically capture the degree of casualty of a typhoon. This index is characterized by human casualties, agricultural, industrial and infrastructural damages. The values for the loss index are then divided into three levels (slight, significant and sizeable) in terms of the extent of the damage caused by the typhoon. Ordinal logistic regression is then employed to obtain a model that would predict the intensity of loss using the characteristics of a typhoon. The model obtained significant factors that provided accurate and reliable estimates that appropriately captured the intensity of loss resulting from the typhoons. Hence, the model can be used as an alternative for the Multicluster Initial Rapid Assessment (MIRA) methodology during the first phase.
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